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Black registered voters have anâïoverwhelmingly positiveâïview of Vice President Kamala Harris, but they’re less sure that she would change the country for the better, according to a recent poll from theâï AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
The poll, which was conducted in mid-September, foundâïabout 7 in 10âïBlack voters have aâïsomewhat or very favourableâïview of Harris, withâïfew differencesâïbetween Black men and women voters on how they view the Democratic candidate. Younger and older Black voters also hadâïsimilar viewsâïof the vice president.
Black voters’ opinions of former President Donald Trump, by contrast, wereâïoverwhelmingly negative, underscoring the challenges that the Republican candidate faces as he seeks to erode Harris’ support among Black men. Black voters are an important Democratic constituency, and few are aligned with the Republican Party. According to the survey, two-thirdsâïof Black voters identify as Democrats,âïabout 2 in 10âïidentify as independents andâïabout 1 in 10âïidentify as Republicans.
But the poll also found that despite this dramatic gap in views of the candidates, Black voters are less certain of whether Harris would set the country on a better trajectory, or make a substantial difference in their own lives. Onlyâïabout halfâïof Black voters say “would change the country for the better” describes Harrisâïvery or extremely well, while about 3 in 10 say it describes her “somewhat well” and about 2 in 10 say it describes her “not very well” or “not well at all.” And onlyâïabout halfâïbelieve the outcome of this presidential election will have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of impact on them personally, an assessment that’sâïin line with Americans overall.
“The Democratic Party is not strong enough for me,” said Raina Johnson, 53, a safety case manager in Chicago. Johnson predicted that Harris would “try to do something for the people” but she felt that Harris would be limited as it was “with (Barack) Obama, because the Republican Party shut him down.”
While Johnson felt that the stakes of the election were extremely high, she did not think it would have a large personal impact on her.
“Because I’ll still live my life. I’ll just have to roll with the punches,” she said.
When asked which candidate would do a better job handling their top issues, including theâïeconomy,âïhealth care andâïcrime, Black voters had the same answer:âïHarris.
Like voters overall,âïabout 8 in 10âïBlack voters said the economy isâïone of the most important issuesâïto their vote. Butâïabout three-quartersâïof Black voters said health care was one of their most important issues, compared toâïslightly more than halfâïof registered voters, and they were alsoâïmore likelyâïthan the electorate as a whole to sayâïgun policyâïandâïcrimeâïwere top issues.
In all of those areas, as well as on other topics like abortion and climate change, Harris held a commanding advantage over Trump among Black voters. But the size of that edge was bigger on some issues than others. About 6 in 10âïBlack voters said Harris was better positioned to handle the economy, whileâïabout 2 in 10âïsaid this about Trump, giving Harrisâïabout a 40-point advantage. Onâïabortionâïpolicy, she hadâïaround a 60-point advantageâïover Trump.
The Trump campaign has stepped up with some outreach to Black communities this year. The former president’s campaign believes thatâïhisâïmessage on the economy, immigration and traditional values can make notable inroads into the Democrats’ traditional base of support among Black voters, especially younger Black men.
Rod Wettlin, a retired Air Force veteran in Surprise, Arizona, who wants greater action on issues likeâïhealth careâïand immigration, said he was deeply opposed to Trump and was concerned about the implications of the election for American democracy.
“What’s going on now is the culmination of a lot of stuff that’s been in our face for years,” said Wettlin. “Hopefully after the election it is civil, but these cats out here are already calling for bedlam. And that’s their right, I fought for them to have that right. But don’t infringe on mine.”
There are signs that some groups of Black voters see Harris as a stronger figure, though. Black women voters and older Black voters wereâïespecially likelyâïto describe Harris as someone who would “fight for people like you,” compared to Black men and younger Black voters.
Relatively fewâïBlack voters have a positive view of Trump, or see him as a candidate who has important qualities for the presidency. The poll found thatâïaboutâï8 in 10 Black votersâïhave aâïsomewhat or veryâïunfavourable view of Trump, whileâïjust 15% âïhave aâïsomewhat or veryâïfavourable view.âïAbout 1 in 10âïsaid “would change the country for the better” or “would fight for people like you” describes Trumpâïat least very well, and a similarly low shareâïof Black voters said that Trump would make a good president.
“I think we’re headed in the right direction if Kamala Harris gets it,” saidâïRoslyn Coble, 63, andâïa resident ofâïOakboro, North Carolina. “But if Donald Trump gets it,âïit’s going to be bad. He already told us what he’s going to do. He’s going to be a dictator.”
About 7 in 10âïBlack voters say the phrase “will say anything to win the election” describes Trump at least very well.
In a sign of how former President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw as the Democratic candidate in July may have altered the race, onlyâï55%âïof Black menâïvotersâïhave a favourable view of Biden, compared toâï7 in 10âïBlack womenâïvoters.
“He did his best,” said Wettlin. He said that Biden should have bowed out of the presidential race far sooner and was sceptical of some of his achievements.
Black voter engagement organisationsâïsay theyâïhave also seen a burst of energy from voters and advocates since Harris’ entrance into the race, and both the Harris and Trump campaigns are continuing to focus on this group.
The Trump campaign has been conducting listening sessions and community events in Black neighbourhoods in cities like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee. The campaign has also coordinated a “Black Voices for Trump” bus tour across cities in September. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign has held a number of events geared toward Black voters, especially Black men, and has deployed a number of high-profile surrogates, including lawmakers, celebrities and civil rights leaders, to Black communities in recent weeks.
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